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🗓️ TDC Event | TDC joined Elcano and Carnegie experts in Madrid to discuss Ukraine's war and European security On 28 September, TDC took part in a closed-door discussion at the Real Instituto Elcano in Madrid: "Ukraine at a crossroads: the war, military support and the future of European security." Maksym Skrypchenko, President of TDC and Nonresident Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Oleksandr Slyvchuk, Coordinator of TDC's Spain and Latin America Cooperation Program, joined Eric Ciaramella, Senior Fellow at Carnegie and former official at the U.S. National Security Council and CIA. Charles Powell, Director of the Elcano Royal Institute, chaired the meeting. 🔹 The conversation covered the state of the war, Ukraine's military needs, and the international support available. 🔹 Participants discussed possible scenarios for ending the war and their implications for European security. 🔹 The discussion deepened dialogue between Ukraine and Spain on security, defense, and the future of Europe. We are grateful to the Elcano Royal Institute, Charles Powell, Carlota Garcia Encina, PhD, and the entire Elcano team for hosting, and to all participants for their contributions.

🗓️ TDC Event | Ukraine's war shows that Europe's defense problem is production, not just funding Marianna Fakhurdinova, Coordinator of TDC's EU–Ukraine Partnership Program, spoke on the "European Defense Initiatives" panel at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies. The session was part of the Center's seven-week "Emerging Security Issues" course for junior and mid-level security and defense professionals from Europe and the US. 🔹 EU-level support, from the Ukraine Support Loan to the European Peace Facility and joint ammunition procurement, offers strong funding frameworks, but consensus requirements and the "Buy European" debate can slow down delivery. 🔹 Bilateral support is more flexible but uneven: direct weapons transfers, the "Danish model” and co-production all depend on individual member states' capacity and political will. 🔹 Despite growing commitments, Ukraine still lacks air and missile defense interceptors, aviation ammunition, and maintenance capacity for F-16 and Mirage 2000 aircraft. "Ukraine's wartime experience shows that adaptability, rapid innovation, and production at scale are essential in high-intensity warfare. Europe should overcome the fragmentation of its 27 national defense markets through joint procurement, co-production and industrial partnerships," Marianna Fakhurdinova emphasized. 🔗 Read more via the link in the comments.

📊 New infographic | Russia is targeting Ukraine's economy: 90% of food retailers' warehouses are destroyed TDC's new infographic maps the cost of Russia's strikes on Ukraine's economy: a potential 0.9 percentage-point hit to GDP growth, 0.4 p.p. added to inflation, and a 75% drop in export volumes as ports and civilian vessels come under attack. The damage reaches global food markets too, lifting wheat prices 6% in a single day and hitting importers in Africa and the Middle East hardest. Want to receive TDC infographics before they appear on social media? Subscribe to TDC updates on our website – subscribers get early access. 🔗 View the full infographic via the link in the comments.

🗓️ TDC Event | Ukrainian expertise is getting a direct channel into NATO policy discussions Maksym Chebotarov, who leads TDC's U.S.–Ukraine Partnership Program, has joined the Ukraine–NATO Civil Society Consultative Network. Launched in Kyiv this July, the Network brings together the Ukrainian government, NATO, the security and defense sector, think tanks, veterans, and civil society. 🔹 TDC will feed its work on transatlantic security, U.S.–Ukraine relations, and democratic resilience directly into the Network's recommendations. 🔹 The Network exists to turn expert dialogue into concrete proposals on defense reform, interoperability, and resilience. 🔹 For TDC, that means frontline experience and analytical work can reach NATO and international partners as actionable policy, not just commentary. "Ukraine's integration into NATO requires not only political commitment, but also sustained cooperation between the state, the security and defense sector, and civil society," Maksym Chebotarov said. 🔗 Read the full announcement via the link in the comments.

📊 New infographic | The EU needs 100,000 troops to replace the US ground presence on its eastern flank, its rapid-reaction force has 5,000 TDC's new infographic is based on "Future of the European Union", a joint TDC and Centre for International Security study supported by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. It maps the EU's reform choices: 80% of decisions already pass by qualified majority, but unanimity still governs foreign policy, enlargement, and finance. It also covers a multi-speed Europe, the E6 format, and France's first nuclear expansion since 1992. 📄 Full report via the link in the comments. The publication is prepared under the project “Strengthening the Analytical Capabilities of the Foreign Policy Decision-Making with the Civil Society” of the Centre for International Security with the support of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Ukraine.

🗞️ TDC in the media | No rush for peace: why a broad peace in Ukraine remains elusive Maksym Skrypchenko, President of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, published an op-ed in Anadolu Agency on why the intensity of diplomatic contacts around the war still far outweighs their tangible results. Kyiv is ready to limit its strikes; Moscow keeps finding reasons to refuse. Key points: 🔹 The divergence is fundamental, and it cannot be explained by battlefield shifts, because there have been almost none. Russia has not secured a victory that would let it dictate terms, and Ukraine lacks the advantage to rapidly liberate occupied territory. What is evolving is not the map, but the nature of the war: the decisive contest is now over each side's economic foundation. 🔹 Ukrainian strikes on Russia's oil industry are designed to raise the cost of the war to the point where Moscow sees a practical benefit in mutually limiting attacks. Kyiv is open to a wide range of limited agreements: protecting Black Sea shipping and grain infrastructure, halting strikes on energy facilities, or a complete mutual cessation of long-range strikes. 🔹 Moscow refuses to discuss such arrangements. It links any move toward a truce to Ukraine's prior withdrawal from the remaining parts of Donbas, which Kyiv believes it can defend for years. The Kremlin operates on the assumption that time is on its side: Ukraine's budgetary difficulties, upcoming European elections, and a winter of attacks on energy and gas infrastructure. 🔹 The next test comes at the UN General Assembly. The Zelenskyy–Trump meeting could open the door to a limited truce, and draft resolutions on ending strikes on grain infrastructure are already circulating. A Black Sea truce would matter far beyond Ukraine: it would protect the global food supply and let the UN demonstrate practical utility. 🔹 The conclusion is direct: Washington and Europe must use sanctions, incentives, or both to convince the Kremlin that another winter will not deliver the victory it has so far failed to achieve on the battlefield. Main takeaway: A comprehensive peace remains out of reach not due to a lack of peace formulas, but because of the conflicting expectations of the warring parties. Therefore, the most realistic path forward lies in limited agreements that lower the cost of the war without waiting for all political disputes to be resolved. 📖 Read the full article via the link in the comments. If you are looking for expert commentary from our team, please reach out to: [email protected]. #Ukraine #Peace #Diplomacy #UNGA #Geopolitics