Montel Analytics

𝐖𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠! 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐩𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐠𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝? After a hot, dry summer where solar carried much of the load, Europe's power system now faces a very different season: fewer sun hours, higher heating demand and thinner buffers in hydro and gas. In my latest Montel column, I look at what is shaping the European power prices this winter: supply, demand, gas, and how much power can actually move across borders. A mild, windy winter would ease the pressure. A cold, still one would expose every weakness at once. Read the full column here (not behind the paywall): https://lnkd.in/dvTAwpUG

How resilient is Europe’s energy infrastructure to cyberattacks, sabotage and hybrid threats? On this week’s Plugged In, I’m joined by John Roberts and Petras Katinas to examine the risks facing the wires, pipelines and substations that keep Europe’s energy system running. We discuss how the threat has changed since 2022, where Europe’s biggest vulnerabilities lie, and what could happen if a critical part of the system is hit. We also look at how governments and energy operators can strengthen resilience through greater redundancy, decentralisation and closer cooperation. Tobias Federico also shares his view on Germany’s gas outlook. Despite storage levels being at a ten-year low, he says the situation is manageable for now, though it could become tight. The weather will be a key factor. The episode also features Laurence Walker, Montel News Deputy Editor-in-Chief. 🎧 Listen to the full episode via the link in the comments.

Recently, the Spanish day-ahead market has been alternating between low or negative daytime and very high evening prices as a result of record solar generation, high gas prices, high cooling demand, and low availability of hydro and gas-fired generation assets. The market yearns for more flexible assets - what better time to invest in batteries than this, one would think. But project developers are having a hard time getting their BESS projects on the ground. Grid constraints and financing uncertainties present roadblocks to the flexibility that the market needs. Find out what would be needed to solve the problem and what the upcoming elections have to do with it. Click on the link in the comments to read the column.

Are your Danish positions priced for today’s market, or last year’s? In March 2025, the Nordics launched a new balancing model. Reserves are selected automatically, priced in 15-minute blocks and limited by the cross-border capacity available close to real time. At Deep Dive Aarhus, Priyanka Shinde, our Nordic Market Expert, showed what that has meant: 📈 Balancing activations in DK1 and DK2 roughly doubled when comparing the same period in 2024 and 2025. ↔️ Imbalance prices across the 12 Nordic bidding zones became much less alike. The markets are more connected, but prices are moving further apart. This matters especially in Denmark. DK1 and DK2 are small zones with a high share of wind. When cross-border capacity is available, neighbouring markets can help. When it isn’t, the zone is more exposed to sharp price swings. Montel EnAppSys balancing forecasts cover Denmark under the new market rules. See whether DK1 or DK2 is heading short or long, and size your intraday positions for the market as it clears today. 👉 Try for free: https://lnkd.in/exg_d_gy

What if AI becomes one of the biggest drivers of electricity demand in Europe over the next decade? ⚡ That question is no longer theoretical. Across Europe, a wave of investment is flowing into data centres as AI, cloud computing and digital services drive demand for new digital infrastructure. Finland alone now has more than 100 data centre projects in development. For energy markets, the implications are significant. 🔹 Can Europe's grids accommodate this new demand? 🔹 Will data centres accelerate investment in renewables, storage and flexibility? 🔹 Or could they place additional strain on already constrained electricity systems? In this week's episode of Plugged In, I sat down with Janne Peljo, Elisabeth Cremona and Liam Newcombe to explore how data centres are reshaping Europe's energy landscape, what AI-driven demand growth means for electricity markets, and the choices policymakers and grid operators face in the years ahead. The digital economy needs power. The question is whether Europe's energy system can keep up. 🎧 Listen to the episode via the link in the comments.

The Dutch case: the costs of grid bottlenecks In this week’s episode of Plugged In, I speak with Timon Dubbeling, Senior Energy Regulator at the The Netherlands Authority for Consumers and Markets. He explains how congestion can prevent businesses and other parties from connecting to the grid. That can slow economic activity and the decarbonisation of the energy system, as well as increasing costs. We also discuss how flexibility from batteries, including residential batteries, could help ease congestion. The wider benefits may extend beyond what system operators capture directly. Recognising how the costs and benefits are shared will be crucial. We also cover grid tariffs, transparency around solar and storage, algorithmic trading, as well as links with neighbouring power markets. 🎧 Listen to the full episode via the link in the comments.