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The stock market is sorting companies into winners and losers. The talent market is quietly doing the same thing. We grouped every public company in the Compa database by TSR performance over the last 18 months – top third against bottom third – then looked at how each cohort actually pays and hires. The split is sharp. High TSR companies grew hiring volume by 10% while Low TSR companies cut it by 13%. New hire grant values climbed 15% at the winners and barely moved at the losers, widening the equity premium to 50%. Full brief linked in the comments.

You’ve decided to respond to a shift in the compensation landscape. Do you know how you’re going to respond or will you spend months debating and getting approval? When backend engineering jumps 9% across your two largest markets you could reach for any number of responses - off-cycle adjustments, retention awards, new-hire premiums, or well-documented exceptions. Reach for the wrong one and you either overspend or under-protect. Then there's the market direction no one plans for: down. A cooling market is where philosophy gets tested, because doing nothing is still a decision - and it still costs money. Ashley Case and I just published Part 3, the final piece in our market moves series. It covers: → Matching the response to the move - from broad range updates to targeted exceptions → How to plan for a cooling market, not just a hot one → Why the gap between raising and lowering ranges should be a decision, not a default → Why communication is the most underrated variable in any pay change Live data tells you something has changed. Your judgment decides what to do about it. Link to the full piece in comments.

We analyzed thousands of accepted offers across Compa's network, and one trend stood out amongst the rest: The management layer is shrinking. In 2025, 60% of accepted management offers were at the Director and Senior Director level while hiring for early-stage management roles continued to shrink. What's driving it? Companies are becoming leaner, faster, and giving individuals larger spans of control, inherently flattening the traditional organizational structure. Companies are investing in more senior leaders who can oversee larger functions and operate with greater autonomy. What showed up in our analysis: • More Director and Senior Director hiring • Fewer entry-level management opportunities • A growing premium on experience and autonomy This pattern spans across industries outside of tech, including life sciences and financial services. The question is whether this is a permanent redesign of the workforce or the first chapter of a longer story in the AI era. Check out the rest of our findings - link is posted in the comments!

Last week I had the pleasure of opening Compalluminati 2026 with a State of the Market presentation. Presenting to 300+ compensation professionals at Snowflake's HQ was a genuine honor. A few of my favorite stats from the presentation: 1. Cumulative spend on AI talent doubled from 2024 to 2025, primarily driven by an increasing volume of AI Engineering hiring. 2. There were more AI Engineering offers above $4M in 2025 than in 2023 and 2024, combined. 3. Junior-level hiring volumes are falling off a cliff, primarily in Sales, Customer Success, and Corporate functions. If you're interested in seeing the slides, comment 'Compa' and I'll send them your way.

Next month we bring together 300+ compensation leaders at Snowflake HQ in Menlo Park for our annual summit, Compalluminati. This year's theme is managing billions with AI in fast changing markets. This is the most exciting time in history be in comp - risk and opportunity is everywhere. In my newsletter this morning I wrote about why we invest so much in community, the extraordinary teams joining us on stage, and what to expect at our 3rd annual and biggest yet Compalluminati. Link below! #compensation #totalrewards

You already know comp isn't everything. You just don't know what to do about the rest. Compa's data shows that AI/ML offers at higher percentiles are in some cases less likely to be accepted - at a certain point, the number stops moving the needle. What closes the gap is something the competition can't easily copy. Dario Amodei (CEO of Anthropic) put it directly: you can't buy mission alignment. The AI talent who matter most know that, and they're choosing accordingly. Ashley Case and I just published the final piece in our AI and Critical Talent Playbook: The EVP Playbook. It covers: → What separates a real culture from a polished careers page (and how candidates can always tell the difference) → The four stay interview questions that get at actual flight risk, not just sentiment → Why compute, tooling, and research time are part of your talent pitch (even if no one's said it out loud) → How to hold leaders accountable to what your culture actually says it stands for Parts 1 and 2 covered the financial playbook: retention awards, offer strategy, sign-on structure. Part 3 is what amplifies all of it. Linked in comments. Get comp right first. Then build something people actually want to be part of. That's the full playbook. Part 1: The Retention Playbook ⚓ Part 2: The Attraction Playbook 🎣 Part 3: The EVP Playbook 🤝 ← link below