Confluence Investment Management

Our latest Confluence Mailbag podcast episode is out now: "Escalation Dominance and the Costs of a Recession-Free World." This month, Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director-Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, unpack the concept of escalation dominance in the US-China relationship and how societies endure pain. They consider the likelihood and potential depth of recession, examining the trade-offs that arise when the Fed and other policymakers intervene to prevent downturns and identifying areas of malinvestment in today’s markets. Additional topics include the forthcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality and their outlook for gold. Listen to the new episode: https://lnkd.in/gVUDesct Submit your question for a future episode to: [email protected]

Does the historic rally in gold signal more than inflation hedging? The surging price of gold and rising stock indices seems to be an unlikely pairing. In our recent Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly, we discuss why this might constitute a pivot point for the markets and for investors. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/giSW4K4e Listen to the podcast episode: https://lnkd.in/dqA8cdX

Confluence is pleased to announce that our International Opportunities strategy has been selected for Gold Status for SMArtX Advisory Solutions Q3 2025 Select List (Foreign Large-Cap Growth category). The Select List highlights strategies "that have shown exceptional ability to navigate a diverse market environment." International Opportunities is a concentrated portfolio of high-conviction ideas from foreign developed and emerging markets based on Confluence’s investment discipline combining top-down and bottom-up approaches. For additional information regarding the strategy: https://lnkd.in/giHXDd-B Read the SMArtX Advisory Solutions press release: https://lnkd.in/g9VPUAaS Please refer to the linked press release for additional information on the proprietary screening process utilized by SMArtX. Confluence did not provide SMArtX with any compensation in connection with obtaining or using this designation, and Confluence was granted permission to publish this information. Past performance is no indication of future results. The portfolio is highly concentrated and is not suitable for all investors.

The Great AI Race: A Sputnik Moment for the 21st Century. The race for global AI dominance has crucial implications for governments and financial markets. Much like Sputnik, this isn't just about a single technological achievement. Our recent Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report examines the US-China contest and discusses how the future of the global order may be at stake, with the potential to profoundly reshape the world economy and global financial system. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/gs-FJJXc Listen to the podcast episode: https://lnkd.in/gQUjs6Yt

Your investment in the S&P 500 might not be as diversified as you think. In our recent Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly, we explore the distinctions between investing in cap-weighted and equal-weighted indexes and provide considerations for investors evaluating whether it might be time to adjust their approach. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/gveVR9du Listen to the podcast episode: https://lnkd.in/dqA8cdX

Not all tariffs are created equal. Tariffs have historically been employed to achieve three primary objectives, ideally simultaneously. However, trade policy often presents a “trilemma,” where pursuing two of these objectives comes at the expense of the third. Our recent Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report explores the distinct types of tariffs, their impact on financial markets, and what recent trade developments indicate for the future of the American economy. Read the report, "Tariff Trilemma: The Three Rs Driving US Trade Policy": https://lnkd.in/gJBGdks8 Listen to the podcast episode: https://lnkd.in/gQUjs6Yt