Clearnomics

Will there be a recession? Why are valuations approaching all-time highs? What will the Fed do next? In times like these, the value of great advice becomes even more apparent to clients and prospects. In partnership with Michael Kitces and Kitces.com, we're excited to share this comprehensive Q4 market outlook designed for advisors. The outlook addresses ten key themes, including: ✅ Should I worry about investing near market highs? ✅ Is AI investment sustainable? ✅ Will the Fed continue cutting rates? ✅ Are recession risks increasing? ✅ How does the new tax bill affect planning? ✅ Is bond market calm here to stay? ✅ Does gold belong in my portfolio? 👇 Read the full outlook and access all of the charts on Kitces.com using the link in the comments.

Clearnomics empowers advisors with fully customizable, white-labeled insights to deepen client relationships and engage prospects on the topics that matter most. Discover how Clearnomics can benefit your practice. *Advisors rated Clearnomics 9.6 on The Kitces Report Advisor Satisfaction Survey, the highest of any advisor technology company. Elevate your tech stack with the most powerful market insights platform in the industry.

Clearnomics empowers advisors with fully customizable, white-labeled insights for their client communications and marketing. Discover how Clearnomics can benefit your practice. *Advisors rated Clearnomics 9.4 on The Kitces Report Advisor Satisfaction Survey, one of the highest of any advisor technology company. Elevate your tech stack with the most powerful market insights platform in the industry.

🎙️ Kitces.com just published their latest Financial Advisor Technician podcast. Thanks to host Adam Van Deusen, CFP® and Michael Kitces for the opportunity to share how advisors can discuss today's market and economic topics with clients. The two market themes that are continuing into the fourth quarter are 1) higher yields and 2) strong corporate earnings. There are many layers to this when it comes to supporting clients, since interest rates and stronger fundamentals affect all aspects of the economy, markets, investing, and financial planning. ➡️ For advisors, the key to client conversations is that the playbook from 2008-2020, when rates were ultra-low, has changed. Clients need to be educated on today’s higher-rate environment and how this affects their portfolios, especially amid trends around AI, geopolitical risk, and more. I hope you enjoy the discussion - you can listen to the full episode here: https://lnkd.in/ghm4aMn2

Clearnomics Community is the free platform that empowers advisors with customizable, white-labeled insights for their client communications and marketing. Discover how Clearnomics can benefit your practice. *Advisors rated Clearnomics 9.4 on The Kitces Report Advisor Satisfaction Survey, one of the highest of any advisor technology company. Elevate your tech stack with the most powerful market insights platform in the industry.

You’ve seen the news that mortgage rates are back above 7%. As an advisor, you often discuss the implications of higher rates on financial plans with clients. What perspectives can you share on how they affect the broader economy? Rates haven't been sustainably at these levels in nearly 25 years. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has averaged only 4.6% since 2008. As a result: ➖ The "lock-in" effect: homeowners who secured rates between 3% and 6% over the past several years have a disincentive to sell. This keeps the supply of existing homes tight and transaction volumes low. Washington policymakers are even exploring "portable mortgages" as a potential response. ➕ Despite slower activity, home prices remain near record highs nationally. This is because low unemployment and a healthy economy mean most homeowners can comfortably afford their existing mortgages. ➕ The wealth effect: strong home values, even if there are fewer transactions, and a stock market near all-time highs are helping to support consumer spending. This is the case even as consumer sentiment remains near historic lows due to inflation. ➕ Household debt service as a share of disposable income sits around 11%, still well below the pre-2008 peak of nearly 16%. This suggests that most households could manage through this period well. ❓ Refinancing activity has fallen sharply. With fewer homeowners able to convert their equity to cash, this could create a headwind for consumer spending over time. ➡️ The true economic impact will depend on how long mortgage rates stay at these levels. The Fed's latest projections suggest policy rates could stay elevated through at least 2027. The bond market seems to agree with this, with Treasury yields from the 5-year onward all above 5%. For advisors, this is a good time to help clients understand how the housing market connects to the broader economy, and why staying vigilant with long-term planning matters right now.