Capital Economics

AI-related sectors make up just 4.7% of the UK economy, yet they generated 23% of its growth over the past year. The latest data show the trend continuing. Our economists explain why, and how it may help the UK avoid a brief recession this winter. Start your free trial today and get instant access to the full analysis, charts and data included. https://lnkd.in/eRCvAfa7

Will the Budget prompt a bond market backlash? When should Burnham call an election? Will AI’s boost arrive sooner than expected? The UK team at Capital Economics answer these questions and more in our latest analysis, and you can read 10 publications free, starting with these: ◾𝗚𝗶𝗹𝘁 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗹𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸: Our base case is that the Chancellor won’t loosen fiscal policy by much at the Budget, but his margin for error is small and a gilt market backlash is a real risk. https://lnkd.in/eAEuzU6d ◾𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗱𝗿𝗮𝗴: The energy price shock means higher mortgage rates will weigh on house prices for longer, while pushing rents up further. https://lnkd.in/eRsGTiyG ◾𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴: The economy matters for election timing, so we look at which year makes most sense for Burnham to go to the country. https://lnkd.in/e9KqprbY ◾𝗔𝗜 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝘂𝗽 𝗶𝗻 𝗚𝗗𝗣: Recent data suggest the sectors tied to AI spending are already lifting UK growth. https://lnkd.in/eBKWiWUd For a limited time, you can read all of the above, plus an additional five of our publications, with no subscription or payment details required. Click any of the articles above to start your free trial now. Or browse all our latest UK analysis, with the charts, data and forecasts behind it, and pick the 10 that matter most to you: https://lnkd.in/ePuVYZun

We’re an independent economic research firm, featured in the FT, WSJ and BBC. Our economists cover the issues shaping the global economy, from interest rates and inflation to the growing impact of AI. Start your free trial today for instant access to our research, and find out why AI’s economic boost may arrive sooner than expected. https://lnkd.in/eT2qicSK

Our UK economics work was referenced on The Martin Lewis Money Show last night, specifically our forecasts for mortgage rates and how they compare with what markets are pricing in. When economic policy lands on household budgets, clear and independent analysis matters. The Budget is the next big test. On Budget day, our UK team will publish rapid analysis of the Chancellor's announcements, cutting through the headlines to what matters for growth, the fiscal outlook and the Bank of England, before anyone else. Join us for our Budget drop-in straight after the statement to put your questions directly to our expert team. https://lnkd.in/e4ZVr5uh #ukeconomics #capitaleconomics #ukmarkets

The Chancellor has little room for error at the Budget on 28th October. We think he will do just enough to keep investors onside, but with borrowing already under scrutiny, even a modest rise in borrowing could trigger a bond market backlash. Read our latest update to discover our forecast for Gilt yields and what could knock it off course.

The decision to allow production at the Jackdaw gas field will give the UK economy only a modest lift, boosting GDP by less than 0.1%. Read our latest UK Economics Update to find out what it means for trade, the public finances and energy security.