Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.

Fear and uncertainty moved aside this summer, and optimism is now abound. Central Bankers are cutting rates, equity markets are touching new highs, and the Toronto Blue Jays are headed to the World Series! Read more in the October 2025 Corporate Bond Newsletter https://lnkd.in/e9GfPiAS

By the 3rd quarter of 2025, bad news was out of vogue. The financial markets were certainly ignoring any negatives in their surge to ever more expensive levels. Read more in the October 2025 Market Observer: https://lnkd.in/ehmRZ8w7

Canadian dollar denominated debt issued by foreign borrowers, often referred to as maple bonds, surpassed $35 billion in issuance during the first half of 2026. This dramatic surge has been driven by massive capital expenditure needs from global tech giants. Mia Prkusic, CFA at Canso, explains how record-breaking deals from Alphabet ($8.5 billion) and Amazon ($14 billion) have set new records for the Canadian market. See the data behind this surge and why signs of oversupply may now be starting to emerge in the July 2026 Canso Corporate Bond Newsletter: https://lnkd.in/gAq3xPnn

Much of the rates and credit markets finished the first half of 2026 close to where they began, giving the appearance of a quiet six months. But beneath the quiet headline numbers, storms are brewing. A less communicative, Cook-ed Federal Reserve, record Artificial Intelligence infrastructure spending, pressure in Canada’s housing market, controversies surrounding Gordie Howe Bridge, and historically tight credit spreads are leaving investors with plenty to consider. Our latest Market Observer examines what is happening beneath the surface and what it may mean for investors.

New issuance is running 50% ahead of last year’s pace, despite historically tight credit spreads. Maple bonds have led the charge, surpassing $35 billion in the first half of 2026 alone. Alphabet helped drive the surge with a record-breaking $8.5 billion offering. A record that lasted all of five weeks, before Amazon followed with a mammoth $14 billion deal. Investor demand has appeared insatiable, but recent signs of weakness, including widening spreads on Amazon’s long-term Canadian bond, suggest supply may be starting to test the limits. The question for investors now becomes: Has there been too much issuance for the market to absorb? Find out what our investment team thinks about these developments and the current credit landscape in our latest Corporate Bond Newsletter.

The Federal Reserve changed leadership during the second quarter of 2026, but some influence from the past still remains. In the video below, Vivek Verma, CFA at Canso, looks back at Alan Greenspan’s legacy and the parallels drawn by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at his swearing-in. The transition comes as monetary policy, political pressure and shifting economic conditions continue to shape investor expectations. Read our latest perspective on the forces influencing financial markets in the July 2026 Market Observer: https://lnkd.in/gpDnW3cj