Bitwise in Europe

Bitcoin’s Final Macro Hurdle: Bond Stress, Midterms and the Waiting Game Three questions on the table at our next Bitcoin Macro Investor webinar: ↳ Economy under pressure: AI stocks are cooling off, and higher interest rates are feeding through to the real economy. What do a shaky equity market, a weak housing market, and struggling banks mean for portfolios and for Bitcoin? ↳ Bond stress: Government debt could keep rates high. But if the economy keeps weakening, a rate cut and a market rebound become more likely. ↳ Early-cycle Bitcoin: On-chain, Bitcoin still looks early in its upswing. Buyers are accumulating, and long-term holders aren’t selling. That points higher, despite the macro headwinds. The macro is noisy. The on-chain data is not. With Matthew Hougan (CIO), Bradley Duke (Head of Europe), and André Dragosch, PhD (Head of Research). Wednesday, November 4 | 4 pm CET | 3 pm GMT. Register now 👇 #BitwiseEurope #MonthlyBitcoinMacroInvestor * This webinar is designed only for persons with professional experience in investment matters. It is not suitable for retail investors or the general public. If you do not have such experience, please do not rely on the content of this webinar. Marketing communication, not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high-risk investments: you may lose all capital invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

People ask the wrong question. They ask if Bitcoin is going mainstream. That misses the point. Central banks cannot keep money tight forever. I see this all the time. Pressure builds up. So they ease. Then they cut rates. They add cash back into the market. That is when big money looks for shelter. Here is where we think we are going: Near-term: Spot ETFs let wealth managers buy in directly. Big money is taking over. Long-term: Government debt keeps rising. They will print more money. Bitcoin is just a simple hedge. Holding 0% Bitcoin in a portfolio is not a neutral play. Bonds leak value over time. Holding zero is a huge bet on cash. Most investors would not make that bet. To be clear: real adoption takes time. But the thesis stays the same. Join Matt Hougan, Bradley Duke, and Luke Deans for our next Monthly Bitcoin Macro Investor Webinar. We will break down these trends live. Register now. 8th of October | 4pm CEST | 3pm BST * This webinar is designed only for persons with professional experience in investment matters. It is not suitable for retail investors or the general public. If you do not have such experience, please do not rely on the content of this webinar. Marketing communication, not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high-risk investments: you may lose all capital invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

I go to a lot of conferences. I always open the floor for questions. A few years ago, the one I got most often was "Isn't Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme?" Every other week, back in 2020 and 2021. I don't get that question anymore. What I get now are informed questions, the kind that assume the asset is real and want to know how to actually think about it. Regulation has changed. Attitudes have changed. And corporations have been changing things too: treasury companies, the whole "Bitcoin standard" conversation that barely existed a few years ago. But why does this matter? High rates and market stress don't last forever. At some point, they start hurting the economy too much, stock markets, government debt, all of it. When that happens, central banks usually step in the same way: cut rates, pump money back into the system. History keeps showing the same pattern: Bitcoin's price has tended to rise sharply afterward. So the same pressure hurting markets right now is, ironically, what usually forces the exact move that tends to push Bitcoin higher next. That's why I want to put real numbers on the table with Matt and Luke, not just the pattern: a snapshot of what corporations are actually doing right now, and what it tells us about how this could play out. Does the shift in investor sophistication I'm seeing actually match how fast corporate treasuries are moving, or is one running ahead of the other? Matt Hougan, Luke Deans, and I will discuss this in our upcoming Monthly Bitcoin Macro Investor Webinar. 08.10. | 4pm CET/CEST | 3pm GMT/BST Register: https://lnkd.in/enxYtB_h #BitwiseEurope #MonthlyBitcoinMacroInvestor * This webinar is designed only for persons with professional experience in investment matters. It is not suitable for retail investors or the general public. If you do not have such experience, please do not rely on the content of this webinar. Marketing communication, not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high-risk investments: you may lose all capital invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

If you’re only watching daily price action, it’s easy to get distracted by market ups and downs and all the news. But if you step back and focus on the numbers, you gain an understanding, which is way more powerful. And as more market signals come in, you can see that big investors and pension funds are steadily putting money into Bitcoin for the long haul. And this is for sure not what you’d expect if people were losing faith in Bitcoin. Right now, price and fundamentals are telling two different stories. Which one should we believe in? Join our upcoming Bitcoin Macro Investor Webinar to break down both sides of this equation, from short-term price dynamics to the longer-term trend among institutional investors. Date & Time: October 8th at 4:00 PM CET / 3:00 PM GMT Register now. 8th of October | 4pm CEST | 3pm BST * This webinar is designed only for persons with professional experience in investment matters. It is not suitable for retail investors or the general public. If you do not have such experience, please do not rely on the content of this webinar. Marketing communication, not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high-risk investments: you may lose all capital invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Are the days of wild 2.5x Bitcoin treasury multiples behind us? During our last Bitwise monthly webinar, an investor asked a sharp question about corporate Bitcoin treasuries and their mNAV (multiple on net asset value) heading into the next market phase: "How will corporate BTC treasuries perform in a bull run, and can they still raise capital at massive premiums?" Here's how Matthew Hougan and André Dragosch, PhD broke down the data. Corporate Bitcoin treasuries have entered a mature third phase. → The monopoly era is over. Before spot ETPs existed, corporate treasuries were one of the few liquid, regulated wrappers for institutional Bitcoin exposure. Today, allocators have direct access to low-cost ETPs, which removes that structural premium. → The math of scale changed. Publicly traded corporate treasuries now hold roughly 5% of total Bitcoin supply, with Strategy alone holding around 4%. Doubling a corporate stack at this size is mathematically much harder than it was three years ago. → What drives premiums now is different too. A runaway bull market can still trigger short-term momentum premiums, but a baseline mNAV of 2.5x or more isn't the norm anymore. Going forward, mNAV expansion depends more on rising futures curves and active balance sheet engineering, like preferred equity models, than on simple spot accumulation. This is exactly the kind of question we dig into every month, live. This time, I'm the one hosting. I'll be taking over our next Bitwise Monthly Crypto Market Webinar on October 8th, together with Matt and Bradley, stepping in for André. We'll break down real-time capital flows, macro liquidity indicators, and digital asset positioning. Bring your macro questions. Register now: https://lnkd.in/ePrfTzat #BitwiseEurope #MonthlyBitcoinMacroInvestor * This webinar is designed only for persons with professional experience in investment matters. It is not suitable for retail investors or the general public. If you do not have such experience, please do not rely on the content of this webinar. Marketing communication, not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high-risk investments: you may lose all capital invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

"The institutions are coming." That's been the narrative since the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs launched in 2024. But 13F filings and derivatives volumes only tell part of the story. The world's biggest allocators play it close to the vest. So we asked them directly. 15 of the largest institutional investors on the planet. Here's the twist: despite a 50%+ crypto drawdown, not one of them is planning to sell. On October 8, Matthew Hougan (CIO), Bradley Duke (Head of Europe), and Luke Deans (Senior Research Associate) break down: ➝ Why corrections and consolidation are still plausible, even as the bigger bull thesis holds. ➝ The on-chain and institutional signals pointing to improving cycle dynamics. ➝ How a deeper correction in equities, credit, or sovereign bonds could become Bitcoin's next major catalyst. Register now. 8th of October | 4pm CEST | 3pm BST * This webinar is designed only for persons with professional experience in investment matters. It is not suitable for retail investors or the general public. If you do not have such experience, please do not rely on the content of this webinar. Marketing communication, not investment advice or a personal recommendation. Cryptoassets are high-risk investments: you may lose all capital invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.