AMRO (ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office)

The immediate priority following a natural disaster is to save lives and support affected communities. But recovery also requires rapid and reliable financing. Without it, physical damage can quickly become a macroeconomic shock—driving up food prices, straining public finances, disrupting supply chains, and weakening longer-term growth. In my latest commentary, first published by Project Syndicate, I explain how disaster-risk finance can serve as macroeconomic firewall across ASEAN+3. Prearranged financing can help governments respond quickly, preserve fiscal space, and prevent natural disasters from becoming humanitarian, fiscal, and ultimately financial crises. https://lnkd.in/gbbGHsES

By 2050, one in four people across ASEAN+3 will be aged 65 or older. The region has accumulated substantial savings and pension assets, but assets alone will not prepare it for the economic and fiscal pressures of population aging. In my latest commentary for The Business Times, I emphasize that ASEAN+3 must also strengthen its pension, insurance, and capital-market institutions and deepen regional financial integration. This will help mobilize long-term savings and connect them more effectively with investment needs across the region. ASEAN+3 can still align its financial architecture with its demographic reality, but the window for action is narrowing. https://bt.sg/g/D2jJ

Singapore’s ability to weather external shocks illustrates how strong policymaking, preparedness, and leveraging on structural advantages can reinforce resilience and support future competitiveness and growth. In our latest blog, AMRO Group Head and Lead Economist Runchana Onn Pongsaparn shares her 5 key takeaways from AMRO's Annual Consultation Report on Singapore: bit.ly/4pumzwq

How can the Philippines stay competitive amid a weak manufacturing base and rapid advances in AI? AMRO's analysis highlights the need for a calibrated policy strategy—upgrading modern services, strengthening manufacturing through 'servicification' and infrastructure, investing in people, and managing AI-driven disruptions to sustain inclusive growth and long-term productivity gains. Read more from AMRO’s selected issue on the Philippines, “Growth Potential and Structural Challenges in the Philippines: Role of Manufacturing and Services”: bit.ly/43MTtQ4

After a strong outturn in 2024 and the first three quarters in 2025, Singapore’s economic growth is set to moderate to 4.1% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026 as US reciprocal tariffs take effect. Headline inflation is projected to hover around 0.9% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026. However, external risks dominate the near-term outlook, while structural issues weigh on the longer term. How can Singapore navigate near- and medium-term challenges? ✔ Deploy a fiscal–monetary–trade policy mix to mitigate trade disruptions ✔ Adopt more targeted support to vulnerable households and firms ✔ Increase usage of free trade agreements to unlock new export growth ✔ Boost workforce adaptability and foster a dynamic business environment Read more in AMRO’s 2025 Annual Consultation Report on Singapore: bit.ly/4oGeNy8

Thailand is attracting record FDI—USD 42.2 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, up 94% from a year ago. Digital infrastructure, advanced electronics, and EVs dominate the investment pipeline. But as Part 2 of AMRO’s blog series on Thailand’s transformation notes, FDI alone does not guarantee broader economic benefits. Lasting gains depend on whether investments generate spillovers that strengthen domestic firms and works — from technology transfers, to skills and knowledge development. 👉 Find out how Thailand can make this happen: bit.ly/3KvlxB1