Spire

NOAA puts the odds at 75% that this El Niño becomes the strongest on record since 1950. In North America, El Niño winters have a clearer historical track record. For Europe, the signal is far less direct, and that uncertainty matters for gas, power and commodity positions through Q1. Spire designs, builds and operates its own satellite constellation, and our observations feed the global weather models run by major forecasting agencies. Join Spire’s meteorologists for a month-by-month Europe outlook, where week-to-week swings are most likely within the seasonal average, and a look at how the signals held up in past seasons. Live Q&A included. Can’t make it live? Register anyway and we’ll send you the recording.

How cold will this winter be, and how long-lasting? How certain is the forecast, and is the market already pricing it? That's what every trading desk, utility, and weather-sensitive industry leader wants to know about this winter. Spire's meteorologists give their view, region by region, with live Q&A, in our upcoming winter 2026-27 outlook webinar. Sessions: • North America Winter Outlook: Thursday, Oct. 22, 2:00 PM ET / 11:00 AM PT • Europe Winter Outlook: Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2:00 PM CET / 1:00 PM GMT If your P&L, margin, or supply commitment moves with winter temperatures, this webinar is for you. Can't make it live? Register, and we'll send you the recording: https://hubs.li/Q04B1Pt70

What if the most valuable part of a winter forecast isn’t the prediction, but the uncertainty? For energy traders, utilities, and commodity markets, a seasonal outlook is only part of the picture. The week-to-week swings within that outlook can have significant implications for demand, pricing, and hedging decisions. With a potentially historic El Niño shaping up and other climate signals to monitor, what should businesses be watching this winter? Join Spire’s meteorologists for our 2026-27 Winter Weather Outlook webinar, where they’ll explore what the forecast signals tell us, where uncertainty remains, and how to track shifts as the season unfolds. Plus, we’ll reserve plenty of time for Q&A. 📅 North America Winter Forecast: Thursday, October 22, 2:00 PM ET / 11:00 AM PT 📅 Europe Winter Forecast: Tuesday, October 27, 2:00 PM CET / 1:00 PM GMT Register here: https://bit.ly/4yl1gRz #WinterOutlook #EnergyMarkets #WeatherRisk #CommodityTrading #SatelliteData

We humans observe the world in a deterministic way: things happen, or they do not. As a result, most long-range weather forecasts are taken too literally. A seasonal outlook shows a mild January on a map, and people read it as: January will be mild. But that is not what the forecast says. At best, it says that a mild January is more likely than normal. This is true even this year. We are in the middle of one of the strongest El Niño events ever measured, and you will see a lot of confident winter outlooks in the coming weeks. Most skip the predictability limits. So why would you join yet another winter weather webinar? Because a seasonal forecast gives you probabilities, not certainties. And those probabilities need to be read correctly. A 70% chance of a mild winter still means that three out of ten times, the winter will not be mild. When that happens, the forecast was not wrong. A good forecast is one where 70% really means 70%: over many winters, it happens seven times out of ten. The secret is knowing how to aggregate the forecast in time and space, so you remove the noise and keep only the signal that is real. The signal is strongest when you look at monthly averages instead of single days or weeks, at large regions instead of cities, and at places where El Niño has a clear influence. In some parts of the world, that influence is strong this year and worth acting on. In Europe, seasonal forecasts traditionally have low skill. But with an El Niño this strong, even the European seasonal forecast can be trusted a little bit more. So where does Spire fit in? “Understanding the present is the key to predicting the future.” Spire’s satellites collect radio occultation (RO) data: we measure how signals from global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) bend through the atmosphere. We do this around 10,000 times per day, everywhere on the planet and in all circumstances, and it gives very accurate temperature and humidity profiles. RO has a particularly big impact in the upper troposphere and stratosphere, where the jet stream and large-scale wave patterns steer our weather for weeks ahead. A weakening polar vortex, for example, can change European winter weather weeks later. And because RO is based on atomic-clock timing, it needs no bias correction. All of this results in a better analysis of today’s weather, and a better starting point for every forecast we make from it. Because we collect our own RO data, we are well positioned to make better forecasts, also in the long range. But rest assured: we will never promise more certainty than we have. My colleague Jared Allen will present the winter outlook in two sessions: North America on October 22 and Europe on October 27. He will compare Spire’s forecast with the public monthly, sub-seasonal and seasonal models, and show where confidence is high, where it is not, and what that means for winter weather in each region. I hope to see you there. Register here: https://bit.ly/4jKD7Qy

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