Novi Labs

Diamondback Energy's Midland Basin inventory represents one of the strongest positions across all of US unconventionals. Our new corporate report shows ~18.5 years of runway at current drilling pace, with 61% of locations in Tier-1 or Tier-2 rock. Read the full analysis on Novi Intelligence. (Link in the comments)

When was the last time we saw sentiment this low in oil and gas? According to the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey (Q3), the industry’s mood has officially hit its lowest point since 2016, excluding the COVID shock. Both the Activity Index and the Company Outlook Index turned negative for the second straight quarter. That has not happened in five years. What is driving it? A mix of old and new challenges: • Price volatility and OPEC+ uncertainty • Policy swings and capital scarcity • Flattening efficiency gains that no longer offset reduced activity In plain terms, operators are doing more with less, but the “less” is starting to catch up. Rig counts have crept up slightly, but the underlying caution remains strong. 78% of surveyed firms admitted to delaying investment decisions due to uncertainty. Still, there is a glimmer of optimism. The same respondents see higher prices ahead, supported by underinvestment, supply tightness, and persistent geopolitical instability. With crude stocks sitting at only around 410 million barrels, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve remains near multi-decade lows, at levels last seen in the mid-1980s and far below its historic peak capacity. And with multiple global conflicts showing no signs of resolution, that limited buffer could prove critical if another disruption hits. This survey does not just capture data; it captures mood, and mood drives behavior. When sentiment drops this low, strategy often shifts from expansion to protection. If you are trying to understand where the next inflection point might be, or what producers are signaling through their spending patterns, this report offers valuable clues. Take a look at Novi Intelligence Analysis by Tim Chan and Robert Polk here: 👉 Dallas Fed Energy Survey Q3 2025: Key Takeaways and Analysis (link in the comments) With the next Dallas Fed Energy Survey set to be released on December 17, 2025, do you expect sentiment to rebound or will producers stay cautious as we head into 2026?

With Q3 earnings out, we can update our look at capital intensity and ROACE for the US E&P sector. While E&Ps are still growing production, capital intensity continues to fall, and ROACE remains in the single digits.

How do you track rigs and frac crews across basins as big and complex as the Permian or Anadarko? Simple: you don’t rely on one source. Novi blends AI-powered Kayrros detections with Baker Hughes rig counts to provide complete, continuous coverage, including start and stop times for rigs and frac crews. The result? A holistic, verified view of activity across North America.

Last week, ExxonMobil announced it had bought out its long-standing southern Midland JV with Sinochem—a partnership that had endured since the Pioneer days. Details were sparse, but we managed to back into PXD's old acreage position and come up with some deal metrics that, to be blunt, looked attractive for Exxon. Link to the blog post is in the comments.

Some Argentina’s shale wells are outperforming most of the Permian. One operator just hit ~460,000 barrels of oil in the first year, per well. Unconventional oil now delivers ~490,000 barrels per day in Argentina. That’s over 60% of the country’s total production, almost all of it coming from the Neuquina Basin. Since 2020, the basin has seen drilling activity grow ~20% every year, driving a ~5x increase in output in just five years. The standout: Vista’s wells in Medano de la Mora, averaging ~460,000 barrels in their first year. These wells aren’t just strong by local standards, they beat most wells in the Permian. When ranking wells drilled between 2020–2025 by first-year oil production, here’s how the top 5 shake out: ▪️ Vista | Medano de la Mora | ~460k (8 wells) ▪️ ExxonMobil | Bajo del Choique | ~252k (17 wells) ▪️ Pluspetrol | Loma Jarillosa Este | ~222k (6 wells) ▪️ YPF | Loma Campana | ~208k (48 wells) ▪️ Pan American Energy | Coirón Amargo Sur Este | ~195k (20 wells) These production profiles put Argentina in direct competition with the Lower 48’s best wells. The performance isn’t just competitive, it’s world-class. So here’s the question: is the Neuquina Basin on track to become the next global benchmark for shale performance?