Data Desk

European gas broke €100/MWh today for the first time since 2022. My back-of-the-envelope maths puts the margin on a Henry Hub-indexed US LNG cargo delivered to Europe right now at just over $90 million. Some traders may be “concerned” as the FT suggests, but many will be seeing gigantic dollar signs, while Europe and other gas-dependent importers on the hydrocarbon rollercoaster shell out for yet more pricey LNG putting huge pressure on household bills. Another few euros on TTF and we’re through the insane $100 million profit per US origin cargo threshold.

"EPP teams up with far right to win Parliament vote delaying EU methane law" When I saw this POLITICO Europe headline earlier, I couldn't help but think of the bit in Four Lions: "It's Fathers for Justice! They've teamed up with the Real IRA, it's a nightmare scenario." In this case, though, the forces of European reaction linking up with the fossil fuel industry is hardly a surprise. Since the EU Methane Regulation was first advanced in July 2024, European People's Party MEPs have taken more than 400 meetings with representatives of the fossil fuel industry, including 150 with oil majors and 110 with their trade associations. The only reason this data is available is because of the leading role the EU has taken in transparency around lobbying and access (and thanks to pushback from the right, declaration of meetings is still completely voluntary for most MEPs, so the real totals are likely to be larger). Now, another piece of landmark European legislation is under threat. When Member States take a decision on whether to delay the regulation for one or three years next week, I hope they consider both the limited time we have to mitigate the worst effects of climate change, and the real interests behind the 'energy security' scaremongering that has plagued the discussion over recent months.

Hearing a lot about the "pragmatic" and "common sense" decision to grant production consent to Jackdaw on here. I don't agree with the decision, but I can see why it has been framed that way: as a trade-off between relying on more carbon-intensive imports and producing gas domestically to meet continued projected demand. What shouldn't be lost on anyone who buys into the "pragmatic" framing is that this decision will intensify lobbying from the oil and gas industry to build on it, in the UK and beyond. A spokesman for Adura told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that the company is already "looking beyond Jackdaw and Rosebank". The chief executive of the Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce has said "Jackdaw cannot be the end of the story". We're seeing the same dynamic in the EU. Under pressure from gas companies and the US government, the Commission has proposed a one-year delay to the Methane Regulation, one of its most important pieces of climate legislation. Industry's response has not been to accept the compromise but to keep pushing for three years. Companies defending assets they've invested heavily in will always fight laws that put those assets at risk, keep expanding their asks, and present them as neutral or pragmatic. But that is framing. Taken as a whole, the industry's efforts are fundamentally at odds with a core policy objective of the UK government and, ostensibly, every other signatory to the Paris Agreement. I hope the government stays the course on the broader moratorium. But it should be prepared for an intensified lobbying push, not just for more production consents but for new exploration licences too.

⚠️ Alert: persistent methane emissions at Australia's largest LNG plant ⚠️ Since November last year, five consecutive overpasses by Carbon Mapper's Tanager-1 satellite have detected methane emissions from Gorgon LNG, Chevron's massive liquefied natural gas export terminal on Barrow Island in Western Australia. The most recent observation, displayed below via Data Desk's Aerial tool (aerial.datadesk.eco), was captured in late August, showing a plume estimated at between 7.1 and 8.5 tonnes per hour. In our best case yet of rapid methane emissions investigation, Aaron Clark and Naish Gawen joined forces to trace the plumes to vents from the plant's acid gas removal units (AGRUs) -- link to the full story in the comments. As Aaron writes, the plant -- which is supposed to capture stripped CO2 from its sour gas feedstock -- has repeatedly failed to do this job. A Chevron-commissioned report by industrial auditor DNV in March found that the facility only injected between 26% and 35% of available reservoir CO2 between October 2022 and June 2025. Chevron -- which touts its "find and fix" approach to methane emissions and positions itself as a global leader on the topic -- did not respond to repeated requests for comment about the plumes. As with our previous work looking at emissions from LNG tankers during loading, these findings show why regulation -- including the EU Methane Regulation -- needs to take into account emissions along the whole commodity supply chain, not just from upstream extraction itself.

New analysis with Aaron Clark showing that methane plumes have been detected over Chevron's Gorgon LNG facility on five consecutive satellite passovers. After years-long failure of its carbon capture facility to adequately capture CO2, the persistence of this methane plume raises fresh questions about the plant's emissions impact. Both the company and the regulator were asked for clarification, but neither were forthcoming about the source of the emissions. Link here: https://lnkd.in/eyqA6Pcb

New analysis from my Data Desk colleagues Aaron Clark and Naish Gawen found massive clouds of methane at Chevron's Gorgon LNG plant in Western Australia on five consecutive satellite overpasses since November 2025. Australian LNG has been on a tear, delivering huge wartime windfalls to the companies with stakes in these plants as some Asian buyers compete for cargoes. Chevron alone posted a $12.1bn profit in the second quarter of this year. But where there are gas exports, there are almost always methane emissions, silently driving up global temperatures. Methane has been responsible for about 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution. https://lnkd.in/eSYxPMjV